Patriot Defense

From commentary on ESPN:

but as we get deeper into October, it'll lighten up, including a Week 6 game at New England

How did New England's defense fall so far so fast?

A few years ago the Patriots had the most feared, punishing defense in the league. Defense (and spying)  won the Patriots their three Super Bowls,. Their pass defense--led by Ty Law and Rodney Harrison--was stifling in the mid-2000s. The game that defined that dynasty was the 20-3 victory over the high-powered passing Colts in the 2004 playoffs.

And this post wouldn't be complete without some numbers so here they are: Rank of points allowed over the past decade (lower is better): 6th, 17th, 1st, 2nd, 17th, 2nd, 4th, 8th, 5th.

Best Patriots Team

I don't know think I posted this picture. It's been on my desktop since 7/5.

You have to win the Super Bowl to be the best--except when you don't.

The 2007 Patriots were one of the best teams of all-time, no doubt about it, and easily the best of the Pats teams. I watched every game hoping they'd lose and they just kept winning, until it all paid off with 35 seconds left in the 4th.

One last thought: I think part of the reason the Pats decimated teams at the start of the season, but that they are mere mortals in the later part of the season (Expected Win-Loss in first 8 games: 6.97, Expected Win-Loss in last 8 games: 6.03) was that coaches caught on to their spread offense. So maybe they weren't that great, they just benefited from change in strategy that it took time to adjust to. When you regress the Pats points-scored on the number of the game, there is a significant downward trend of about 1 pt per game (t = -2.600.

Brady and Manning: Part 1

Some USA Today reader commented "There is no way Brady would ever throw an egregious interception like [Peyton Manning did in Super Bowl 43]."

Does Tom Brady really have ice water running through his veins? I'm not convinced. Consider these incidents that come immediately to mind:

1. Super Bowl 42 was his worst playoff game to date.

2. In the playoffs vs. the Ravens this year, he was even more spectacularly bad.

3. He threw a pick at the end of their away game vs. the Dolphins this year

4. He chocked on 4th and 2 against the Colts last season

5. He fumbled the ball to lose the Tuck-rule game; only a gift from the football Gods saved his season

and of course

6. Marlin Jackson picked him off to seal their loss vs. the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game

It turns out that if you look at win probability and expected points added in the playoffs, Manning is better than Brady on both counts (since 2000 when data become available).

Manning: 3.59 WPA and 114.8 points

Brady: 3.26 WPA and 62.1 points

There are a few things worth pointing out. First, a year ago Brady did have better playoff numbers--but Peyton's whipping of the Jets and his strong performance in Super Bowl 43, along with Brady's collapse against the Ravens, flipped the script. Second, there biases here: (1) Peyton's first playoff game, which was not spectacular, is left off and (2) Brady played more of his games in the inhospitable climate of New England. Also, a lot of Peyton's number are from 4 strong performances in blowouts over the Jets, Broncos (twice), and Chiefs. Finally, the sample size here is 17 games (Manning) and 18 games (Brady).

Brady seems like he is a more clutch player. Peyton looks like he losses his cool under pressure. But in the data its very hard to find hard evidence for this hypothesis.