Thursday, August 29, 2013

Tim Scott hates entitlements

Tim Scott (R-SC) hates entitles. He opposes expanding Medicaid because "[w]e simply cannot continue to dig a hole" and argues that "increasing our entitlements [means] jeopardizing the future."

I guess that is a sensible mentality for a black conservative. He wants people to get up off their ass and work hard to make their lives better. It's hard to argue with that.

But it's also hard to get out of the entitlement mentality.

Senator Scott's press secretary put out a press release bemoaning the fact that "Senator Scott was not invited to speak at [the 50th anniversary celebration of MLK's "I have a Dream" speech]." Appearnetly, as CNN puts it, "the only black senator and is one of only eight African-Americans to ever serve in the U.S. Senate" is entitled to speak about the legacy of Dr. King.

Friday, July 19, 2013

Breaking: Tebow killed Odin Lloyd

In a shocking twist to the Aaron Hernandez murder investigation, it appears Tim Tebow is taking responsibility for the murder of Odin Lloyd.

In a press conference Tebow said he did "terrible, terrible things"to Lloyd. He claims to have erupted in rage after finding out that Lloyd had "disgraced himself and God by taking a life" by forcing his girlfriend to have an abortion. Tebow announced that he would "take full responsibility for [his] actions, and the consequences" adding that he "just want[s] to help the team win."

The shocking development clears the way for the Patriots to resign Hernandez at a discount as the Bristol County DA is unlikely to win any case against Hernandez.

ESPN's Skip Bayless bemoaned the "selfless act" saying Tebow "took a bullet for Aaron Hernandez, he is not guilty" and insisted Tebow could do more to help the team by dethroning Tom Brady as the Patriots starting QB. The rest of the world agreed that the Patriot's acquisition of Tebow has paid off handsomely.

Monday, May 13, 2013

How Doctors and Austerity Kill

David Stuckler and Sanjay Basu have an interesting op-ed in the New York Times.

They note that during economic catastrophes public health tends to worsen. More people start taking anti-depressants and more people commit suicide. People visit the doctor less and delay preventative care. When infectious disease control is cut, epidemics sometimes break out.

They argue that austerity is to blame since depressions tend to lead to decrease tax revenue and budget cuts, or austerity.

The obvious retort is that maybe the depressions themselves are to blame for high unemployment, suicides, and general misery. Maybe the lack of money and hopelessness are what gets people down, not cuts to TB control funding. But the authors . . . don't really address that issue. They assert that health declines more in countries that adopt austerity but they don't present any evidence for their claim, citing statistics from countries like the U.S. that adopted stimulus programs.

I used to think hospitals killed people. When people are at a hospital they are much more likely to die than when they are at work. But I've come to think that people go to a hospital when they are sick and likely to die. David and Sanjay probably disagree.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Does MIT educate people or sort them?

When my wife got sick she e-mailed her TA to ask for notes from the lecture she was about to miss.

The TA's response: "I can't because it would provide an unfair advantage over the other students."

It's hard to understand what he means if you enter a class thinking the point is to learn the material. Isn't the TA's job to provide the students with material, , like notes and practice problems, to help the them learn? If he has them, shouldn't he give them out so students can be better prepared for the tests?

But when you understand that the class isn't about learning then everything falls into place. The tests aren't supposed to measure how much of the material you understand, they are supposed to measure how smart you are. Giving out good notes or practice problems might help students learn the material, but it would make the assessments test how much you practiced those practice problems and how much times you reviewed the notes, which weakens the value of the exam as a sorting device.


NRA recommends mandating firearms at football games

In response to a recent epidemic of fights between drunk fans at NFL football games, the NRA has proposed mandating that all ticket-holders over the age of 18 bring a firearm to the game. Spokesman Wayne LaPierre noted that "the only thing that stops a violent drunk fan is another drunk fan with a gun."

Economists at the CATO Institute quickly filed a press release in support of the plan. They note that "to stop violence on the field the league threatens fines and 15-yard penalties--to stop violence off the field it should also use incentives." The theory, known as the deterrence approach to crime, is based on the work of Gary Becker, a Nobel prize winning economist. Freakonomist Steven Levitt, an expert on the theory, noted that "it makes sense but sometimes drunk people do stupid, irrational shit."

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell stated that he would "consider the policy on it's merits" without dismissing it out of hand. "It is counterintuitive--giving thousands of drunk, angry men weapons, packing them like sardines, and hoping that violence decreases, but it just might work."

A spokesman for the NAACP complained that the policy could price many African-American fans out of seats at the stadium: "Tickets often cost over $100, and now you will have to invest $100 or more on a handgun just to get in the door!" Together with 50 other minority-rights group the NAACP has proposed building the price of a handgun rental into the price of the tickets in order to ensure that "when a massacre goes down the victims are as diverse as the country that allowed it to happen."

Medical School: Cost Analysis

Getting an M.D. is expensive. The median student graduates with over $100,000k in debt and many student have so "little" debt because their parents paid for part of the cost. The median black student, who tends to have lower income parents, graduates with $184k in debt.

So its not surprising reporters are spreading the word with cost analyses of medical school. Bloomberg has the best such story that I have come across.

As a reminder, cost analysis is an alternative to cost-benefit analysis that ignores the benefits of a choice. The approach helps to simplify analysis, at the cost of leading to conclusion that are complete bullshit in almost all cases.

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Do only rich people have $3 million IRAs?

Obama's new tax plan is supposed to target IRAs worth over $3 million in order to hit the rich where it hurts. I like soaking the rich as much as the next guy but $3 million sounds a bit low, like it hit a substantial share of the middle class as collateral damage?

California is known for its generous pensions so it seems like a good place to start looking for pensions worth $3 million. Retired California teachers average $51,000 in pension income and probably around $20,000 in social security income. That pension is equivalent to about a $2 million IRA. If two teachers were married, each pulling in $51,000 pensions and $25,000 in social security income that would be the same as having a $3.6 million IRA. California is a high income state, and the pensions are generous there even relative to the cost of living, but these are pensions for teachers, not exactly the best paid profession in the middle class. If a family of teachers has over $3 million in their IRA (or pension equivalent) then I think its safe to say a large safe of the country should/could have $3 million IRAs.

So $3 million does not seem like an unreasonable amount to put away in your IRA. Many upper middle class people who save 15% of their income for retirement will end up with something like that amount when they retire. The damage to the middle class would be compounded if the $3 million cap is not indexed to inflation, as seems likely.